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Update from October 11, 2026: Asia–Europe rates have fallen for the thirteenth consecutive week. According to Freightos, rates during Golden Week remained stable through October 6, despite a limited number of sailings. Drewry identifies the faster-than-expected return to the Suez route as the greatest risk to the FAK rate hikes announced for the second half of October; their next report is due on October 15.
On September 16, 2026, the 24,188 TEU container ship OOCL Portugal sailed south through the Suez Canal, heading from Europe to Asia. On September 21, the Gemini alliance scheduled the departure of the Marchen Maersk (18,000 TEU) from Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia—the first vessel in the AE5 service to transit the Suez route toward Northern Europe. The first Premier Alliance vessel on the same route is not expected until November; the ONE Continuity is scheduled to reach Suez on November 9 and Rotterdam on November 19.
The return to the Suez route is more advanced for the Europe→Asia direction, particularly from the Mediterranean. In September, the return via Suez was less advanced on routes between Asia and Northern Europe than between Asia and the Mediterranean. For a Polish exporter using Northern European ports, this means that the shorter route accounted for a smaller share of capacity compared to shipments from the Mediterranean.
Averages that mask the differences
According to Sea-Intelligence data from mid-September, the share of capacity routed or planned through the Red Sea averaged 27% for the entire month of September on the Asia–Europe trade lane, across both directions.
For the Europe→Asia direction, 25–47% of capacity was routed or planned via Suez in September, compared to 18–26% in August. In the opposite direction, from Asia to Europe, the share was 13–25%. The return to the Suez route has therefore accelerated primarily in the direction of containers returning to Asia.
Even greater differences are visible when broken down by region. On sailings from the Mediterranean to Asia, 57% of capacity was routed or planned via the Red Sea in September, compared to 27% for sailings from Northern Europe to Asia (Sea-Intelligence). Freightos, citing Sea-Intelligence estimates, also provides a breakdown for both directions. On the Asia–Mediterranean line, 35% of capacity was restored for Europe-bound traffic and 50–60% for Asia-bound traffic. On the Asia–Northern Europe line, these figures were 6% and 30%, respectively.
Exporters: shorter voyages are available, but not on every ship
In September, about one-quarter of capacity departing Northern Europe for Asia was routed via Suez, with the remainder still traveling around Africa. A shorter voyage has become a realistic option, but not the standard.
Services are transitioning to the Suez route gradually, ship by ship, although the security situation in the Red Sea remains unstable, which casts doubt on the permanence of these changes. During this transition period, two departures of the same service may follow different routes, resulting in different transit times.
On September 14, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced the return of the ME2 India–Europe service to the Suez route, joining the AE5 and the Mediterranean AE11 and AE12 services.
On the cost side: at the beginning of July, the Drewry benchmark for the Rotterdam–Shanghai route was $647/FEU, compared to $4,682/FEU in the opposite direction.
Importers: for now, mostly the rhythm of the route around Africa
In mid-September, Linerlytica identified four major shipping brands that did not have a single ship in the Red Sea: Evergreen, ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming. On October 1, three of them, united in the Premier Alliance, announced that the FE1 service from Southeast Asia to Northern Europe would transition to the Suez route. The ONE Continuity (8,110 TEU) will call at Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Le Havre after passing through Suez. The Premier Alliance plans this first FE1 transit via Suez for November 9. The NYK Venus, ONE Hamburg, and NYK Orion are scheduled to follow this route after departing Asia in November and December.
On this route, Gemini had previously announced that the AE5 service would also be routed via Suez. Hapag-Lloyd also announced that the Umm Qarn from the SE1 service would depart Tanjung Pelepas for Suez on October 27. However, according to mid-September data, the vast majority of capacity from Asia to Northern Europe was still being routed around Africa. For a shipment from China to Poland, the transit time depends on the specific voyage routing, not just the service name. These data, however, describe the situation in mid-September, not the current picture in October; furthermore, announcements of future changes are not a measurement of completed transits.
Reliability is affected by more than just the route. In week 39, ships waited an average of 82 hours in Shanghai and 56 hours in Ningbo (Drewry). In their October 8 report, Drewry noted five blank sailings (canceled voyages) for the Asia–Europe route this week and six for the next. Congestion and rerouting can delay deliveries relative to the scheduled ETA. According to Sea-Intelligence, planned capacity on the Asia–Northern Europe route during the four-week period surrounding Golden Week is 60% higher than the pre-pandemic average. Part of this surge consists of ships delayed by congestion. The firm warns of late voyage cancellations and cargo rolling in the second half of October.
Rates: weak demand and increased capacity
On October 8, the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate fell by 2% to $3,337/FEU. The Shanghai–Genoa rate is $3,696/FEU, virtually unchanged, while the WCI index dropped by 2% to $4,351/FEU. Drewry attributes this decline to weaker demand during Golden Week and increased capacity following the return of some services via the Suez Canal. Carriers are announcing FAK rate increases for the second half of October.
According to Freightos, spot rates fell by another 2–3% in the week leading up to October 6, to $3,260/FEU from Asia to Northern Europe and to $3,555/FEU from Asia to the Mediterranean. The previous week, they had fallen by 9% and 7%, respectively. In the longer term, Freightos reports that rates to the Mediterranean have returned to pre-peak season levels, while rates to Northern Europe remain approximately $400/FEU higher than in mid-May.
At the beginning of July, a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam cost $4,682; it is now about $1,300 cheaper. However, according to Drewry, the same route cost $1,669 on October 16, 2025. The October 8 rate is therefore about twice as high as the rate from October 16, 2025.
Several factors are driving the decline in rates simultaneously. By mid-September, 6% of capacity from Asia to Northern Europe was returning via the Canal, and rates had been falling since July, even before Gemini announced the AE5 transition. In its October 1 report, Drewry links the declines to weak demand and increased effective capacity due to Suez transits, while Freightos acknowledges the impact of shorter routes amid post-season demand softening.
Sea-Intelligence has presented a scenario assuming a full return of head-haul services to the Suez Canal by the end of 2026 and a 6.6% growth in underlying demand. In this scenario, global head-haul demand, measured in TEU-miles, would fall by 8.7% year-over-year in the first half of 2027. A shorter route means fewer days at sea and more rotations for the same vessel. From a market perspective, this represents additional capacity without new ships. Whether this translates into lower rates depends on whether the return is truly complete and how carriers manage capacity, for instance through blank sailings.
Sequence matters
The Shanghai–Rotterdam benchmark is lower than it was in the summer; according to Drewry, weaker demand and returns via Suez are increasing pressure on rates. However, a lower rate does not guarantee a more reliable schedule: late voyage cancellations and cargo rolling are real possibilities in the second half of October.
Sources
- Sea-Intelligence via Global Maritime Hub, approx. 09/18/2026 – globalmaritimehub.com
- Shipping Italy, 09/17/2026 – shippingitaly.it
- Freightos, 09/15/2026 – freightos.com
- The Loadstar, 09/14/2026 – theloadstar.com
- Linerlytica via WWD / Sourcing Journal, approx. 09/15/2026
- Suez Canal Authority via Maritime Gateway
- gCaptain / The Loadstar, 10/01/2026 – gcaptain.com
- Splash247, 10/01/2026 – splash247.com
- Drewry World Container Index, 10/01/2026 and 10/08/2026 – drewry.co.uk
- Drewry via Shipping Telegraph, week 27, 2026
- Drewry via AJOT, 10/16/2025
- Sea-Intelligence via The Loadstar, 01/09/2026 – analysis of the impact of a full return to the Suez route for Asia–Europe trade
- Freightos, 06/10/2026 – freightos.com
- Freightos via Container News, 07/10/2026 – container-news.com
- Sea-Intelligence via ContainerSignal / TrasportoEuropa, approx. 02/10/2026
- ContainerSignal, 02/10/2026 – Premier Alliance, FE1 service via Suez